Today: Hormuz.
No bias.
No opinion.
No jokes.
Possibly no fun.

I have prepared a
completely neutral—
Why is the pacifier
already moving?

First, 
the core
problem:
a narrow
passage
connects
the Gulf
to the Gulf
of Oman
and
beyond.

Iran borders
its north;
Oman’s
Musandam
peninsula
borders
its south.

Before this war,
Hormuz carried
about one-fifth
of global oil
consumption and
one-fifth of LNG
trade. Those are
different measures.

LNG means liquefied
natural gas. A
shipping problem
here travels far beyond
this coastline.

Washington
emphasizes secure
shipping. Tehran
describes the
conflict as
resistance to
attacks on Iran.

Fairness means
checking each
claim. Not
awarding every
claim the same
credibility.

And my personal
verdict is— Not
on today’s agenda.

February 28,
2026:
The United
States and
Israel launch
strikes on Iran.

U.S. leaders cite
security threats
and Iran’s nuclear
ambitions. Iran
calls the attacks
unprovoked
and illegal.

Iran retaliates with
missile attacks
on Israel and
countries in the
region, including
states hosting U.S.
bases.

Iran says
it is
targeting
U.S.
and Israeli
military
interests.
That
claim
does not
establish
where
every
missile
landed.

From late
February: Iran
restricts shipping
through Hormuz.
By mid-April,
Reuters 
describes
the passage as
effectively shut.

“Effectively shut”
is not the same
as proving
that zero ships
crossed. Definitions
matter. Annoyingly.

April 13: The
U.S. announces a
blockade of
Iran-related
shipping.

CENTCOM says it
applies to vessels
going to or from
Iran. That is
distinct from Iran’s
restrictions
on the strait.

April 27: Reuters
reports just seven
crossings in the
previous day,
citing Kpler tracking
and SynMax analysis.

Before the war,
the usual daily
total was about
125 to 140. This
is an April
snapshot, not an
October traffic
count.

So obviously
the— Snapshot.
Just the snapshot.

October 20 reporting:
Iran’s Revolutionary
Guards say two
tankers hit Iranian
mines south of Hormuz
and caught fire.

The statement did
not say when the
alleged incidents
happened. We are
reporting the claim,
not independently
confirming it.

October 25 statement:
CENTCOM says
it supported over 3,000
commercial transits
during the 
previous six months.

It also says over
95% of ships
navigating the
strait in recent
months passed
safely, and that
primary routes
are clear of
Iranian mines.

These statements
do not measure
exactly the same
thing. Successful
crossings can
coexist with danger
and reduced traffic.

The 95% claim
concerns ships
that navigated
the strait. It does
not tell us how
many avoided
attemptingthe trip.

To judge today’s
conditions, we
need matching
dates, ship
records, incident
checks and clear
definitions. Not
just louder
announcements.

What next? These
are scenarios, not
forecasts with
certainty.

If attacks and
restrictions ease,
shipping could
recover. If they
persist, danger
and disruption
could continue
despite safe
crossings.

October 20: HSBC
CEO Georges Elhedery
says new routes
could make Hormuz
“redundant”
within five years.

That is his projection,
not a timetable.
Oil pipelines already
offer some bypass
capacity; that does
not establish a
replacement for all
oil and LNG.

Anyone promising
certainty is—
Offering a claim
I must examine.
Yes. That is what I
meant.

Being fair is
exhausting.
Next time:
which rubber
duck is the
better duck?

A simple, nonpolitical
topic. Obviously, the
one on the left is—

…I am requesting a
different pacifier.